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The top games, however, only lose 17 percent of players by the fifth minute and 24 percent within ten minutes retaining more than twice as many players as the lowest group. By following these principles, you are most likely to design a beautiful product. Products that do not take themselves too seriously are more likely to be considered beautiful designs. I have been in multiple situations where my company cancelled or throttled new products to protect their existing business. As the Google data shows, if you get them back the next day, you will enjoy greater long-term success. The dials are for humans to use, and if you put them in a row, the unlucky human will have to stop and think each time about which dial matches which burner. It feels like extra work to create something ornate, to add features to a product or even to paint more objects in a picture. How do you arrange the dials? The master of creating habit forming products is Nir Eyal, author of Hooked, who created a model to show how to create such products. Marvel movies generally outperform those about DC characters, not because the superheroes are more famous or the special effects are better but because they incorporate humor into the stories. The worst apps lose 46 percent of their new installs by the fifth minute and this number increases to 58 percent by minute ten so in less than ten minutes you have less than half the players you have spent money acquiring. Why did Stadia fail, not because of its UI or UX but because it solved a problem that very few customers experienced access to virtually unlimited content. A great blog post by Paul Graham, Taste for Makers , however, not only points out this thinking is false but also how designers can create beautiful products. It even let external companies App developers integrate with the design, something that would not have been possible or at least as broad if it was a very prescribed interfact. Key takeaways The re-opening of casinos and cinemas may not hurt online gaming social and iGaming or streaming entertainment but continue their momentum due to triggers and the realities of cannibalization. Is it just a coincidence that they used the same word, or is there some overlap in what they meant? Triggers show how the reopening of casinos and cinemas can help iGaming and online social casino as well as streaming entertainment, respectively. Seeing an advertisement on television for Las Vegas or the local Native American casino will not only create interest in going to the casino but also will remind you to go online to play. Focusing on timelessness avoids falling for trends that are currently popular but short lived. Conversely, if your D2 is 22 percent, then 78 percent of the players you pay to acquire do not come back the next day. Rather than lose the percent revenue growth these three sectors have enjoyed, a return to normalcy may actually continue to accelerate revenue. Triggers are a central driver of activity The key to building a successful product is creating something that becomes a habit for your customer. And so the mark— or at least the prerogative— of strength is not to take oneself too seriously. There are two principle drivers, somewhat related, why companies in the social casino, iGaming and streaming media spaces may be pleasantly surprised: the power of triggers and the weakness of cannibalization. In the gaming world, we often deconstruct design into a set of data and AB tests to create products and features that will resonate with players. Once you review your data, you can understand if you are suffering flats or gorges. The metric to focus on is your day 2 retention D2. Industries, and the economy overall, are not a static pie but a dynamic system that grows and contracts based on the interaction of numerous factors. In the second quartile, retention is essentially flat across the first minute and a half, and then begins to increase steadily. Habit-forming products start by alerting users with external triggers like an email, a website link or the app icon on a phone. An external trigger communicates the next action the user should take for more on triggers and how to build them, please see this post. The aim is to influence customers to use your product or play your game on there own, repeatedly, without relying on overt calls-to-action such as ads or promotions. Once you understand the importance of the first ten minutes, you need to focus on improving this performance. In software, it means you should give users a few basic elements that they can combine as they wish. Most people, myself included, believe that the spike in iGaming, social casino and streaming revenue over the past few months will revert back to pre-pandemic levels once casinos and cinemas reopen, however, we may be in for a surprise. Graham uses the example of the stove top to illustrate the importance of solving the problem rather than designing in a vacuum. Triggers cue the user to take action. By focusing on a quick, fun experience, you are more likely to get your customer to return on Day 2. Carpenter explain this as avoiding retention flats and gorges. If you draw a tree and you change the angle of a branch five degrees, no one will know.{/INSERTKEYS}{/PARAGRAPH} At the heart of the contempt of design is a feeling that it is based on taste and that taste is entirely subjective. Prior to finding an eloquent solution, you should ensure you are solving the right or underlying problem. Cannibalization, one product taking sales away from another, is over-hyped in the casino space and rather than online gaming hurting land-based casinos, past experience shows they help each other. Design cannot be an afterthought but instead needs sufficient resources to create something beautiful. When I first entered the social casino space in , it was virtually impossible to form relationships with land-based casinos. Additionally, I have seen many data driven companies where Product Managers create compelling beautiful PowerPoint presentations while share prices drop because customers do not flock to their products. The iPhone was not great because its UI or design was limited, instead it let people use it the way they wanted to. Design is sometimes even considered a bad word, implying that we are not data driven. This anti-pattern shows largely flat retention for up to 10 minutes, with the percentages only rising meaningfully after the 5th to 10th minute. To alter the curves, you can then:. You feel this when you start to design things…. We are so good at looking at faces that we force anyone who draws them to work hard to satisfy us. Rather than seeing the movie or casino market as set at a certain amount with closures and re-openings just shifting where revenue goes, the dynamism of the market could help both sectors grow. Physics progressed faster as the problem became predicting observable behavior, instead of reconciling it with scripture. I find cannibalization one of the most over-hyped concerns, and it relates to how the social and online gaming spaces are impacted by the reopening of casinos same for cinemas. What they ended up learning was that the new products growth actually helped the existing products or competitors came into the market and stole the audience that would have gone to the new product. Rather than the customers now playing online shifting their spend to land based, these customers may turn into VIPs for both land-based and either social or real money online casinos depending on the geography. Graham then breaks down the elements designers need to focus on to create something beautiful, something will be truly tasteful. The key, though, is the impact from the first ten minutes. In math, difficult proofs require ingenious solutions that do not happen overnight. If you look at bad design, it is often the result of solving the wrong problem. Triggers, cues for the user to take action, are central to creating habit forming products; land-based casinos and cinemas could serve as triggers for customers to consume more gaming and movie entertainment online. While it seems like it would be easy to create a simple design, it is actually more difficult. A similar phenomenon may occur as land based casinos re-open. Retaining new installs is arguably the most important driver for whether your product succeeds or fails. These early patterns have a strong impact on players. In practice, though, it is easier to create more mindlessly or not make difficult decisions on what people truly value than taking the time to understand what people want and eliminating what will be superfluous. Apple products are not great because it is clear and easy how to do everything, I still have to Google functionality occasionally for my iPad and Mac, but they encourage consumers to explore the product and push it to its boundaries. They feared their players would flock online and it would cut into their revenue. But this is a simple answer to the wrong question. The second quartile has a similar curve but starts at a lower point. The casino space is rife with this thinking. Going to your favorite casino may trigger in players a desire to continue gaming online. Rather than trying to move the Play Money players to real money, companies realized that it was valuable to encourage continued playing on the Play Money and social products. To create a beautiful design, you have to first understand what user problem it solves. Over the next year or so , more and more data showed clearly that land-based casino customers who also played online in that situation, with social casinos , became more valuable to the land-based casino, not less. I saw a similar phenomenon in the real money online gaming space. There are two types of triggers: external and internal. Going back to mathematics, a proof that becomes the basis for new work is more beautiful than one that does not lead to future discoveries. Again, using mathematics to show that good design is not a subjective exercise, Graham points out that shorter math proofs are generally better. If taste were entirely subjective a van Gogh would have no more value than a van Lloyd. Again, if you look at mathematics, a proof is timeless unless it includes a mistake. If you look at the most successful design driven company of all time, Apple, you see this principle in practice. {PARAGRAPH}{INSERTKEYS}I have written many times about LTV customer lifetime value being the lifeblood for a successful business , as a new customer has to have a higher LTV than the cost of acquiring the customer, and how retention is the biggest driver of LTV. Thus, the logic goes that there is no way to design for taste. Players who played for both Real Money and Play Money were one of the most important segments of the ecosystem. While the amount of time a player spends in your game after they install it is important, the critical factor is the first ten minutes. We just do not know I am not in the business of predictions and the Coronavirus pandemic is such a unique situation it is impossible to look into the past to know how it will play out but it is worth considering both triggers and cannibalization to understand one future scenario. As form should follow function, if function is hard enough, form is forced to follow it, because there is no effort to spare for error. Habit-forming products change user behavior and create unprompted engagement. The simplest answer is to put them in a row. Better to arrange the dials in a square like the burners. In the lowest quartile, retention declines in the first two minutes and does not start to improve until the fifth minute. Rather than proscribing every step a customer takes, a great design will help customers envision how to use the product. For games in the top quartile, retention starts out good and steadily improves. In the third quartile, retention is largely flat for the first four minutes, then increases but more slowly than highly performing games. It is very hard to justify marketing spend if 78 percent is wasted. Land based casinos became very anxious to form relationships with social casinos because the players not only played both but were the most valuable customers. Yet, companies like Apple who I wrote about a few of weeks ago , have shown that valuing design highly can lead to billions in revenue.